Mortgage Stress Monitor

Is this a rate shock, or are borrowers starting to stop paying? Ten gauges, each scored green, yellow or red, roll up to one verdict, and every number links to its source.

Latest read

As of October 12, 2026 · updated monthly, claims and rates weekly

Verdict

Rate shock only

Rates or the mortgage spread are elevated, but borrowers are still paying.

This is a rate shock, not a credit event: rates are elevated but borrowers are still paying. The 30Y fixed is 7.40% (+1.10 pts YoY), yet every mortgage-credit gauge is green; ICE delinquency rate (30+ dpd), NY Fed mortgage flow into 90+ rose but remain below their warning levels. First monthly report; no prior month to compare.

The thesis: a rate shock alone is not a crisis. The signal is borrowers stopping paying, so rate pain and credit deterioration are scored separately. Five verdicts, mildest first: calm, rate shock only, early stress, credit deterioration, 2008-style.

Mortgage stress signals: latest value, prior value, trend and status
Signal Latest Prior Trend Status Source
ICE delinquency rate (30+ dpd) up 1 month(s) running; red needs 3+ and >4.2% (obs 2026-08-31) 3.53% 3.39% ↑ Green mortgagetech.ice.com
ICE foreclosure inventory yellow >0.7%, red >1.0% and rising (obs 2026-08-31) 0.54% 0.54% → Green mortgagetech.ice.com
Bank mortgage delinquency (DRSFRMACBS) up 0 quarter(s) running; +0.14 pts vs 3 yrs ago; yellow needs >1.8% (obs 2026-04-01) 1.86% 1.88% ↓ Green fred.stlouisfed.org
NY Fed mortgage flow into 90+ up 3 quarter(s) running; yellow needs >1.55%, red >2.0% (2003-05 pre-crisis range 1.27-1.50) (obs 2026-04-01) 1.52% 1.48% ↑ Green newyorkfed.org
Credit card delinquency (DRCCLACBS) up 0 quarter(s) running; 2009 level 6.52% (obs 2026-04-01) 2.85% 2.91% ↓ Green fred.stlouisfed.org
Initial claims, 4-wk avg (ICSA) +0.0% vs 52-wk low of the 4-wk avg (obs 2026-10-03) 198.0k 200.5k ↓ Green fred.stlouisfed.org
Unemployment, Sahm gap (UNRATE) UNRATE 4.2%; Sahm trigger 0.5 (obs 2026-09-01) 0.00 -0.07 ↑ Green fred.stlouisfed.org
Mortgage spread, 30Y - 10Y norm ~1.7-1.8; yellow >2.5, red >3.0 and widening (obs 2026-10-08) 2.13 2.04 ↑ Green fred.stlouisfed.org
Home prices YoY (Case-Shiller) yellow <0% YoY, red <-5.0% YoY (obs 2026-07-01) 1.93% 1.61% ↑ Green fred.stlouisfed.org
30Y mortgage rate (Freddie Mac) +1.10 pts YoY; rate gauge, not a credit signal (obs 2026-10-08) 7.40% 7.28% ↑ Yellow fred.stlouisfed.org
Mortgage delinquency rate, commercial banks (%) 2006-2010 0 5 10 15 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2026-04-01: 1.86% Mortgage delinquency rate, commercial banks (%) latest 1.86% (Apr 2026)
Bank mortgage delinquency, 2003 to today, 2006-2010 shaded
NY Fed: mortgage balances newly 90+ days delinquent (%) 2006-2010 0 2.5 5 7.5 10 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2026-04-01: 1.52% NY Fed: mortgage balances newly 90+ days delinquent (%) latest 1.52% (Apr 2026)
NY Fed flow into 90+, 2003 to today, 2006-2010 shaded
Credit card delinquency rate, commercial banks (%) 2006-2010 0 2 4 6 8 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2026-04-01: 2.85% Credit card delinquency rate, commercial banks (%) latest 2.85% (Apr 2026)
Credit card delinquency, 2003 to today, 2006-2010 shaded
Mortgage spread: 30Y fixed minus 10Y Treasury (pts) 2006-2010 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2026-10-08: 2.13 Mortgage spread: 30Y fixed minus 10Y Treasury (pts) latest 2.13 (Oct 2026)
Mortgage spread, 2003 to today, 2006-2010 shaded

Shaded band: 2006-2010, the last mortgage-credit crisis, for comparison.

Context: 10-yr Treasury (%) 5.22 (2026-10-08) · NY Fed card flow into 90+ (%) 6.97 (2026-04-01) · NY Fed auto flow into 90+ (%) 3.00 (2026-04-01)

Regional hot spots: largest monthly rises in 90+ day mortgage delinquency (CFPB, through 2025-12, dated release)
  1. Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA: 1.1% (+0.6 pts)
  2. Mississippi: 1.8% (+0.6 pts)
  3. Tyler, TX: 1.3% (+0.6 pts)
  4. Macon-Bibb County, GA: 1.8% (+0.5 pts)
  5. Chambersburg, PA: 1.6% (+0.5 pts)
  6. Shreveport-Bossier City, LA: 2.3% (+0.5 pts)
  7. Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL: 2.2% (+0.4 pts)
  8. Pennsylvania: 1.6% (+0.4 pts)
  9. Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX: 1.7% (+0.4 pts)
  10. Odessa, TX: 2.3% (+0.4 pts)

CFPB publishes with a long lag, so this list is a regional backdrop and does not feed the verdict. Source: consumerfinance.gov

Sources: FRED (St. Louis Fed: DRSFRMACBS, DRCCLACBS, ICSA, UNRATE, MORTGAGE30US, DGS10, CSUSHPINSA), ICE First Look (monthly delinquency and foreclosure), NY Fed Household Debt and Credit Report (flow into 90+ day delinquency), CFPB Mortgage Performance Trends (regional).

Method: each gauge has a yellow and a red rule. Level rules must hold for 2 straight months (4 weeks for weekly data) before a gauge changes color, so one noisy print can't trigger it. Replayed on 2005-2011 data, using only figures published at each date, the monitor read "credit deterioration" from February 2007 and "2008-style" from April 2008, with no false alarm in 2005. Two delinquency gauges also need their level above the 2003-2005 pre-crisis range before they can flash, so a slow climb inside normal territory does not count.

Generated 2026-10-12T07:15:36+00:00. Not investment advice.