Macroeconomic Intelligence
FRED economic data, regime detection, and monetary policy tracking.
Mortgage Stress Monitor
As of October 12, 2026 · updated monthly, claims and rates weekly
Verdict
Rate shock only
Rates or the mortgage spread are elevated, but borrowers are still paying.
This is a rate shock, not a credit event: rates are elevated but borrowers are still paying. The 30Y fixed is 7.40% (+1.10 pts YoY), yet every mortgage-credit gauge is green; ICE delinquency rate (30+ dpd), NY Fed mortgage flow into 90+ rose but remain below their warning levels. First monthly report; no prior month to compare.
The thesis: a rate shock alone is not a crisis. The signal is borrowers stopping paying, so rate pain and credit deterioration are scored separately. Five verdicts, mildest first: calm, rate shock only, early stress, credit deterioration, 2008-style.
| Signal | Latest | Prior | Trend | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE delinquency rate (30+ dpd) | 3.53% | 3.39% | ↑ | Green |
| ICE foreclosure inventory | 0.54% | 0.54% | → | Green |
| Bank mortgage delinquency (DRSFRMACBS) | 1.86% | 1.88% | ↓ | Green |
| NY Fed mortgage flow into 90+ | 1.52% | 1.48% | ↑ | Green |
| Credit card delinquency (DRCCLACBS) | 2.85% | 2.91% | ↓ | Green |
| Initial claims, 4-wk avg (ICSA) | 198.0k | 200.5k | ↓ | Green |
| Unemployment, Sahm gap (UNRATE) | 0.00 | -0.07 | ↑ | Green |
| Mortgage spread, 30Y - 10Y | 2.13 | 2.04 | ↑ | Green |
| Home prices YoY (Case-Shiller) | 1.93% | 1.61% | ↑ | Green |
| 30Y mortgage rate (Freddie Mac) | 7.40% | 7.28% | ↑ | Yellow |
Key Economic Indicators
Live from FRED (St. Louis Fed)
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